At the recent CES convention, Warner Brothers may have cast the deciding vote

The high-definition DVD war is all but over, according to most industry analysts attending the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas last week. In perhaps the most important “big picture” news of the convention (with apologies to Panasonic and its 150-inch plasma screen), Warner Brothers may have cast the deciding vote by opting to offer its titles on Blu-ray disc over the HD DVD format.
Behind Warner’s decision was widespread fear about the sagging home entertainment market. Many predict that domestic DVD sales fell by nearly three percent in 2007, partly because of confusion in the marketplace over the various formats. Barry M. Meyer, the chief executive of Warner Brothers, told The New York Times that the window of opportunity for high-definition DVD was in danger of being missed if “format confusion continues to linger.”

HD DVD, however, is not dead. Two major studios, Paramount Pictures and Universal Pictures, have deals in place to continue releasing their movies exclusively on HD DVD, as does DreamWorks Animation. [However, it’s rumoured that Paramount and Universal will announce a switch to Blu-ray later this year, when their existing agreements expire.]

Toshiba, HD DVD’s main backer, told a briefing at CES that the format “has not lost.” However, a major press conference at the show was canceled after the Warner Brothers announcement, and the HD DVD camp appeared in disarray.

With Warner on board, Blu-ray now has about 70 percent of the market locked up. Walt Disney, 20th Century Fox, MGM, Lionsgate and, of course, Sony are all on Blu-ray’s team.

For Sony, Warner’s decision is a chance to rewrite history: the company faltered in its introduction of Betamax in the consumer market in the 1970s. Many analysts say the HD DVD players now risk becoming the equivalent of Betamax machines, which died out in large part because it became harder for consumers to find Betamax movies as studios shifted allegiance to VHS.